🏀Sweet 16 Betting Picks with Bob Digital

Bob Digital is back (@BobbyDigital2 on X)

It’s great to be back this week breaking down Sweet 16 betting picks.

If you’ve tuned into our recent Wolf Sports Twitter Spaces, you’ve seen us deep in the betting weeds—especially with college hoops.

The opening weekend didn’t deliver chaos, but what we’re left with is a stacked Sweet 16.

Twelve of KenPom’s top 16 teams are still alive.

Let’s dive into a couple matchups I’m targeting.

BYU vs Alabama

Alabama is a team I haven’t been high on heading into this tournament. Their defense is shaky, and their three-point shooting has taken a step back from last year’s Final Four run.

They’ve dropped 100 spots nationally and are shooting over 2% worse from three than a season ago.

On the flip side, using Bart Torvik’s efficiency rankings since February 10, BYU has been a top-5 team in the country.

Yes, there’s been some three-point shooting variance behind that—but the Cougars have proven they can win away from home, beating Iowa State (twice), Arizona, WVU, and Arizona State.

BYU’s path to the Sweet 16 wasn’t easy. They knocked off VCU and Wisconsin, both at altitude in Denver. Meanwhile, Alabama’s defensive profile is concerning:

Their effective FG%, 2P defense, and defensive rebounding all rank outside the top 100.

They’re bottom 15 in the country in forcing turnovers and also commit a high number of fouls.

BYU’s defensive scheme encourages opponents to shoot threes, which could backfire, but they are the better shooting team in this matchup.

With a total set in the mid-170s, expect a high-variance game with both teams going on runs.

Great live-betting spot—but pregame, I’m splitting a play on BYU against the spread and moneyline.

PICK:
BYU +5.5 (0.5 unit)
BYU ML +190 (0.5 unit)

Purdue vs Houston

A lot of chatter is around Purdue getting to play in Indiana at Lucas Oil Stadium.

But don’t forget—Kentucky and Tennessee are also in this region and have massive traveling fanbases. That dilutes any true home-court edge.

One thing I’m watching: J’Wan Roberts, who entered the tournament with injury concerns, looked sharp last round. He dropped 18 points in 32 minutes against Gonzaga.

But the key matchup edge? Purdue’s 341st-ranked 2-point defense.

That’s a massive problem against Houston—a team that attacks inside relentlessly.

If Purdue collapses inside, they’ll leave the perimeter exposed—and Houston happens to be the #1 3-point shooting team in the country at 39%.

Purdue is also at a talent and athleticism disadvantage here. They’ll need big games from Braden Smith and Trey Kauffman-Renn to hang in this one.

But they’ve only beaten High Point and McNeese so far. I think the public has upgraded them too much—and the “home” factor is already priced in.

I expect Houston to come out strong and win comfortably.

PICK:
Houston -8

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