Strength of Schedule, CFP Debates, and a Fade on Colorado (FREE BET!!!)

Bob Digital (@BobbyDigital2 on X) is back again this week. It’s a pleasure to continue guiding you through the betting space with Wolf Sports, as I’ve done on many recent Wolf Sports Twitter Spaces specializing in college sports — and this week, let's get back to my bread and butter.

Strength of Schedule — The Great Debate

Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a polarizing topic in the college football world. It’s one of the few sports where there’s a vast difference in the level of competition teams face week to week, due to different conferences and disparities within those conferences.

Recently, the SEC has pushed for more emphasis on SOS in determining College Football Playoff (CFP) teams. This push makes sense, as the metric would likely help their conference get more teams into the field — and thus gain better access to the revenue tied to the playoff and national championships.

This push comes, in part, as a response to last season’s debate surrounding the University of Indiana. A surprise playoff team, Indiana drew criticism for its weak non-conference schedule: FIU, Western Illinois, and Charlotte.

But I think a key point that gets undersold is that this schedule was built before the recent shifts in the college football landscape — both nationally and within the Big Ten itself. Previously, the Hoosiers were in the Big Ten East, alongside Ohio State, Michigan, and Penn State — all annual opponents. For a non-traditional power like Indiana, the goal is often to go 6-6 and become bowl eligible. The non-conference slate was built with that in mind: win 3 of 6 tough conference games and sweep the non-conference to get to six wins.

Additionally, this schedule was made before the 12-team playoff, which debuted last season.

My own view lies somewhere in the middle — balancing the “best” teams with the “most deserving.” Without rehashing debates from the past: I do want to see teams like Indiana, who go 11-1 in the regular season, rewarded with a playoff berth — even if I don’t believe they’re one of the 12 best teams in terms of raw power rating. That’s the beauty of sports — and why we watch.

Yes, a three-loss Alabama team last year might still have been better than Indiana. But they lost at Vanderbilt and got trucked by a bad version of Oklahoma. They had chances — and blew them. I don’t want teams like that to keep getting mulligans when it comes to title contention. If there’s a tiebreaker needed, sure — let’s use power rating. But it shouldn’t override results.

Strength of Schedule Metrics – My Approach

This brings us to this season and the SOS metrics I've developed. I recently created my own SOS formula that averages the power rating of each opponent on a team’s schedule, then weights it relative to the team’s own rating — essentially: how tough is this schedule for them?

A couple of examples:

Alabama has the 8th-highest average opponent power rating per my current numbers. However, they are rated more than two touchdowns better than their average opponent, so in my weighted metric, they fall to 26th.

UCLA, on the other hand, is 14th in average opponent power rating, but because they’re actually rated worse than their average opponent by a few points, they rise to 11th in the weighted metric.

I think this creates a more balanced and accurate picture when evaluating a team’s SOS.

Top 10 Strength of Schedule Rankings

Below is a chart showing the Top 10 hardest schedules based on both the raw and weighted metrics:

Speaking of Future Outcomes…

Here’s one actionable takeaway and a win total that’s drawing early market action — and likely won’t last until August:

Bet: Colorado UNDER 6.5 Wins (-160) at DraftKings

Don’t be afraid to lay juice on win totals — there are a finite number of games, and each half-win matters a lot.

Colorado faces a Top 20 schedule by my weighted SOS metric. They’re undergoing a massive scheme shift, aiming to be more run-heavy now that Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter are off to the NFL. Despite continued roster turnover via the portal, it’s going to be tough to replace two college stars of that caliber.

My numbers have them projected at 5.5 wins, and I think they’d be fortunate to even reach 6.

Bet: Colorado UNDER 6.5 Wins (-160)

Current College Football Portfolio

Clemson to Win ACC +115 Colorado UNDER 6.5 Regular Season Wins -160

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